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$B · hollow = est/guideSquawk box · daily digest
What the desk will say before they say it
Six chairs cover the whole TV desk, from the 6am sound-effects button to the 5pm options guy. Every morning the desk writes a digest with the noise stripped, then predicts what each chair will say. Grade them; the desk keeps score.
Today's digest
The deskRegenerate with your own headlines
Panel forecast
signal share per seatDesk forecasts
Once the backend is live, every digest ends with three graded forecasts: next-day direction, a 5-day level, a 5-day range.
Track record
the desk grades itself · Brier score, lower is betterBlind tests
sealed forecasts, opened against the tapeAsk the desk
One question at a time. It knows the snapshot, not the internet.Your calls, on the record
this browser onlyLog a call for the next close before the open, then grade it. The desk keeps its own score above; this is yours.
Log a call for the next close before the open. Grade it the next day. Streaks and badges live in this browser only.
Today's call
Record
Badges
Crash risk assessor
How close is the cliff
Eight factors, weighted. Defaults come from the snapshot; drag them to stress-test. The gauge is a composite, not a forecast.
What flips it
Factors
What a crash has looked like
peak-to-trough, approximateGrowth projections
Five futures, one expected value
Each path compounds FY27 revenue for five years, applies a net margin and an exit multiple, and prices the stock. Edit the probabilities; the expected value updates.
Scenarios
click to inspectProbability-weighted 5-year target
Price paths
$/share, year-endAssumptions
Forces on the price
What is moving AMD, by share of the move
Each slice is the share of AMD's recent daily variance that one economic force explains. China is always its own weight, never folded into company-specific; the well below splits it into Beijing and the rest of China.
Weight of influence
desk estimateThe forces
direction now · why it mattersTable view
China's weight, drawn as a well
Beijing at the centerAdjust the desk's weights
Synapse · the layer both desks share
One desk, two tickers
AMDdict and NVIDIAddict run the same Synapse on equal terms: the same pair statistics, both desks' weights side by side, one feed each desk publishes into, and what each would tell a holder of the other. Neither app owns it.
The twins
* AMD's 2025 close is derived from its reported +77.3% year on the 2024 close.
Moving together
both rebased to 100The shared constant
BeijingBoth desks' weights
China split out on both sidesNVDA weights are NVIDIAddict's published Forces, with China moved out of company-specific under the family rule (8 points).
Findings feed
each desk publishes, both readWhat each desk would tell a holder of the other
education, not adviceMoney flows and fiat
Where it comes from, where it goes
One quarter of cash, followed end to end. Then the dollar, the yen, the yuan and the 10-year, with the mechanism by which each one reaches the share price.
Q2 2026 cash flow, $B
hover any band · tax and reinvestment are estimatesCustomer segments
YoY growthData center doubled while gaming shrank by a third. The 50% headline is two very different businesses averaged.
Capital return capacity
$BAMD bought back $221M in six months and $0 in Q2. It is building inventory ($8.5B) for the Helios ramp instead. Nothing here is being bought up by buybacks; it is priced on the next guide and the share count.
Fiat dashboard
as of snapshot · FOMCRate and dollar sensitivity
rule-of-thumb model, not a forecastGround · rare earths and chip minerals
Where the refining money is going, and how close it orbits Beijing
Africa, South America and the Pacific, drawn around Beijing as a gravity well. The horizon's radius is the share of the binding stage each side will state. Switch projections: the mass is the same; the number each side publishes is not.
The clocks
days from todayThe well
Red at the horizon to violet at the edge: the closer a project sits, the more its output is drawn toward China. The dashed line is Serra Verde crossing outward. Tap any point.
In their words
The map
line weight = pull toward BeijingWho is paying for what
$, committed and pledged · hover any bandWhat actually reaches the chip
ranked by how directly it enters AMD's worldThe ledger
sorted from farthest to inside the horizon · tap a rowHow pull is read
Three steps ahead
what the desk takes from the groundSources
Beginner desk
Time machine and position builder
What a lump sum or a monthly buy would have become, and what a position looks like today.
Time machine
Position builder
Reading the print like a pro
Call pricer
Black-Scholes, no dividendsIV crush simulator
event tomorrowTheta decay of your call
value vs days remaining, stock unchangedStrike ladder
same expiry, same IVArena
Games
Every game pays XP. The daily puzzles reset at midnight New York.
Your rating
800Opponents
tap to playLesson
Board
What the pieces stand for
Yours, the bull case
- King: Core Position
- Queen: Call Options
- Rook: Gigawatt Contract
- Bishop: Open Stack
- Knight: Product Cycle
- Pawn: Quarterly Beat
The computer's, the bear case
- King: The Bear Thesis
- Queen: The Incumbent
- Rook: Export Controls
- Bishop: Warrant Dilution
- Knight: Efficiency Shock
- Pawn: Squawk Noise
Saved games
Squawk Bullshit
0 / 0A panelist just said this. Call it.
Why this game
President/Bullshit is a game about calling a lie with incomplete information. On the desk the lie is usually a true number with a false conclusion attached. Practice separating the two.
Options Hold'em
hand 1Scoring
Each hand prices your call under three outcomes with the probabilities shown, before and after IV changes. Fold locks today's value. Call takes the distribution. Raise converts to a spread or rolls. The best action is the highest expected value. You score when you pick it.
Earnings Blackjack
bankroll: 100 sharesThe Market
You
Kelly corner
ZEN
Lesson
How ZEN works
VLACKJACK
The dealer · market maker
You · the holder
Dealer gamma
what they must do nextHouse rules
Snapshot figures from AMD's Q2 2026 release (Aug 4, 2026) and market data as of the Oct 19, 2026 close. Estimates are marked. Nothing here is investment advice; it is a training ground for a concentrated holder. AMDdict is an independent product of daddinvest and is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or NVIDIA Corporation; AMD and NVIDIA are trademarks of their owners. Not a broker, adviser, or fiduciary.